Don Sweeney's Troubling Off-Season List Revealed: Several Crucial Decisions to be Made

The Bruins are carrying over a significant bonus overage penalty into next season from the bonus-laden deals they handed Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci last summer. David Pastrnak's AAV jumped up by more than $4.5MM while Pavel Zacha added $1.25MM on his new deal compared to 2022-23.

What's the end result of this? They have over $78.5MM in commitments for next season already, per CapFriendly, and that's with at least six roster spots needing to be filled. If all of those players signed for the minimum, they could squeak by from a cap perspective. However, one of their restricted free agents alone could basically gobble up the less than $5MM in space they have left.

As a result, Sweeney is going to have to find ways to clear up space and might need to move multiple players to do so.

Lost in the fact that Linus Ullmark had quite the season in goal for Boston was the fact that Jeremy Swayman also had a very strong year as well, improving upon his numbers from 2021-22. To make matters better for him, the 24-year-old is also eligible for salary arbitration, but that is not good for the Bruins.

The market for second contracts for young goalies without a lot of NHL experience has shot up in recent years. Carter Hart received three years at $3.979MM after just 101 games. Jake Oettinger received three years at $4MM after only 77 regular season games (plus a strong showing in the 2022 playoffs). Spencer Knight received three years with a $4.5MM AAV after only 36 games played. On top of things, it's also worth pointing out that Swayman's career numbers are better than what any of these three had at the time they signed their bridge contracts.

Those three contracts should give Sweeney a good idea of what Swayman will cost on his next contract. Basically, all their cap space, give or take a few hundred thousand. Can Boston afford that? Not really as things stand.
It'd be hard to move on from Ullmark, the likely Vezina Trophy winner. He'll turn 30 late last month so is he their goalie of the future? Or should Swayman, who has three years of control left, be the one to keep?

This season, Boston had strong depth down the middle led by veterans Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, who returned to the NHL after spending a season back home. Bergeron finished third in the team in scoring and Krejci fifth, a nice return on a combined base cap hit of $3.5MM. Of course, there were $4.5MM in bonuses, all of which were easily met and with the Bruins spending the season over the cap, that triggered the carryover penalty. Both veterans are set to become unrestricted free agents once again this summer and while there's little concern that they'll sign elsewhere, it remains to be seen if one or both are willing to return for another year, 20 for Bergeron and 17 for Krejci.

Beyond Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm, it's plausible that any of their other defensemen could be in play. Mike Reilly is someone they'd certainly want to move after he spent most of the year at AHL Providence although they'll likely have to incentivize a team to take him or take a similarly-sized contract back which wouldn't help their cap situation. He has one year left at $3MM. Derek Forbort is another pending UFA who can still hold his own on the third pairing but $3MM for someone in that slot is on the pricey side given their cap situation. Even moving Jakub Zboril, another 2024 UFA, for someone making the league minimum would free up a little over $300K.

As for the other pending UFA out of this group, Matt Grzelcyk is one to watch for. He was a top-four piece not long ago but has dropped into more of a depth role and found himself on the bench at times in the playoffs. He's still a capable blueliner but again, he's on the pricey side for the role he was in down the stretch. The expected departure of Dmitry Orlov could put him back on the second pairing but it still wouldn't be surprising to see Sweeney try to find him a new home.

Brandon Carlo is the other regular that hasn't been mentioned. With four years left at $4.1MM, his contract is certainly reasonable for a second-pairing defender although he's not exactly the type of blueliner that's going to jump in the play and contribute much offensively. In an ideal world, Boston would probably want to keep him but if they find themselves having to trade for a center, Carlo would be one of their more asked-about trade chips in such a scenario so moving him can't be ruled out either.